Antwerp-Newark Lane Stability
VULNERABLE
72-Hour Delay Cost
~$104,400
Structural Vulnerabilities: Single Points of Failure
| Supply Chain Node |
Risk Detail |
Operational Impact |
| The Mortsel Mega-Node (Origin) |
99.9% of exports originate from Belgium, specifically the Mortsel facilities (C.O. Smurfit Kappa/Mondi). |
Localized disruptions in Flanders (labor strikes, grid failure) paralyze the North American supply of X-ray plates. No visible origin redundancy. |
| Antwerp-to-US East Coast (Transit) |
Overwhelming volume routed to just two receiving hubs: Carlstadt, NJ and Goose Creek, SC. |
Highly susceptible to North Atlantic weather and localized port bottlenecks. An ILA labor dispute halts over 50% of recorded shipments. |
Product Risks & Downstream Impact
The cargo passing through the Port of Charleston is not standard retail; it consists of highly specialized, time-sensitive materials.
- Critical High-Volume Commodities: Massive volumes of HS 3701.10 (Medical X-Ray plates) and HS 3701.30 (Photographic plates/films).
- Medical Sector Impact: Customers like Codonics and regional hospitals rely on uninterrupted flows. Delays result in postponed diagnostics and delayed patient care.
- Industrial NDT Sector Impact: Goose Creek requires steady streams of specialized developer chemicals. Industrial testing halts without these, triggering severe SLA penalties.
Financial Impact Analysis: 72-Hour Port Delay
Based on the historical average of 23.21 TEUs per month, a conservative 3-day disruption yields severe financial exposure.
- Volume Delayed: Traps approximately 2.32 TEUs of cargo.
- Capital Tie-Up: At ~$150,000 per TEU, a 3-day delay ties up $348,000 in working capital.
- Expedite Costs: Shifting 1 TEU equivalent to air freight ($4.50/kg) costs ~$45,000. Total direct emergency freight cost is estimated at $104,400, excluding client penalties.
The 'CNY' Effect: March Inventory Projections
Direct exposure to the Lunar New Year (CNY) is negligible, as 0.0% of direct sea shipments originate from Asia. However, raw chemical precursors used in Belgium are likely sourced from Asian markets. Consequently, the inventory dip in North America will be delayed, hitting in mid-to-late April rather than March due to compounded lead times.
⚠️ Unseen Critical Risk: The HAZMAT Concentration Trap
The most severe, unmitigated risk in this dataset is the Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Concentration moving into the Goose Creek facility.
- The Threat: Recent shipments show massive influxes of "Photographic Chemical Preparations," "Corrosive Liquids," and "Ethanol Solutions" flagged as IMDG Class (Dangerous Goods).
- The Blind Spot: Ports heavily restrict dwell times of IMDG containers. If a localized bottleneck occurs at Charleston (e.g., chassis shortage, HAZMAT driver deficit), these containers cannot sit in standard holding yards.
- The Result: Exponential demurrage charges. If the Goose Creek facility hits legal hazardous storage capacity, the Port will embargo inbound Agfa containers, choking off the supply of safe, non-regulated goods traveling on the same bills of lading.